(This is an abbreviated text from the January 2008 issue of Aerospace Market News.)

During December orders were placed for 541 new large jet aircraft, effectively driving the backlog to yet another all-time year-end high. The total backlog figure of 6,848 aircraft was 1,860 more than at the start of the year, an increase of 37.3 percent. The year-end figure represents the fourth consecutive year-end gain for the backlog. Put another way, the backlog has increased every quarter since Q2 of 2004. The figure at the end of the last quarter of last year represents the fourteenth consecutive quarterly gain.

            The growth of the large commercial jet backlog over the past few years has been quite remarkable. While the low point was at the end of 2003, the figure for the end of 2004 was not much better - a gain of just 33 aircraft. But since then, in the space of three years, the backlog has increased by more than two and a half times, or 4,251 aircraft. Three years ago the 717 and 757 were still in production and there were 56 backlog orders for something new called the “7E7”. Also, the passenger version of the 747-400 still had a backlog, although this amounted to just nine aircraft. Three years on, the total large commercial jet backlog has increased by over 1,000 aircraft a year, each year. We also have new aircraft programs.

            Fortunately for both the manufacturers and their many suppliers (as well as the engine companies and their suppliers), a significant proportion of the backlog is for aircraft deliveries over an extended period of time. As things stand, the year-end backlog represents over seven and a half years of work.

            At the end of December there was not very much difference in the backlog figures of Airbus and Boeing. In fact, Boeing had six more aircraft on the books than their European competitor. Boeing’s backlog increased by 972 aircraft last year, or 39.6 percent. Airbus had a slightly lower gain with the company’s backlog increasing by 888 aircraft, or 35 percent. Interestingly enough, despite the fact that there were considerably more orders for the 737, the A320 actually had the largest backlog gain in number terms last year. The increase was 595 aircraft, or 55.7 percent. It is relevant to note that a large slice of the A320’s gain has come from customers switching from original A319 and A321 orders.

            The 737 backlog increased by 516 aircraft last year, or 33 percent. The largest percentage gain of all major aircraft programs came from the A350 XWB which was up 213 percent. There were, however, still some original A350s still on the backlog order book at year-end which have not yet cancelled or converted to the XWB.  

            Boeing’s 787 Dreamliner program, which was recently delayed again, had the third largest backlog gain of all programs, up 369 aircraft on the figure at the start of the year, or 82 percent. At the start of last year, the 787 had the fourth largest backlog of all programs but by the end of the year it was the third largest program.

            All of Boeing’s programs had higher backlogs at the end of December than at the start of the year, though the 747 was up by only five aircraft. Not counting the Airbus A300-600 program, which has terminated, the European manufacturer had four programs with smaller year-end backlogs than at the start of the year. Switches from the A319 and A321 brought down those programs’ backlogs. The A340 backlog dropped at mid year when Emirates cancelled the order for 18 -600s and the A318 which has never really been a very strong program anyway ended the year with a total backlog of 50 aircraft, or four fewer than at the start of last year.

Backlog Change in 2007.

Aircraft Model	Backlog on Dec 31, 2006	Backlog on Dec 31, 2007	Change (number)
A318	54	50	-4
A319	567	557	-10
A320	1,067	1,662	595
A321	278	243	-35
A310	5	5	0
A300-600R *	6	0	-6
A330	227	355	128
A340	61	41	-20
A350	102	320	218
A380	166	188	22
Total Airbus	2,533	3,421	888
737	1,560	2,076	516
747	120	125	5
767	28	52	24
777	299	357	58
787	448	817	369
Total Boeing	2,455	3,427	972
Total Backlog	4,988	6,848	1,860

  * This program terminated in 2007.