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If 2009 is a record year, what about 2010?
It was never going to be a record year for everyone, of course, but for Boeing and Airbus and all
the suppliers to the large commercial jet Industry, 2009 will turn out to be an all-time best year in terms of the number
of aircraft delivered.
By the end of November, the two manufacturers had delivered a total of 867 new jet aircraft,
or nine more than in 2008. That sounds good, initially, but the catch is that there was the small matter of the strike at
Boeing in the second half of 2008 and the U.S. manufacturer delivered around about 105 fewer aircraft than originally planned. 2008 was a record
year for Airbus. 2007, with a total of 894 deliveries, was the high of the decade for the industry. There were 27 more aircraft
deliveries in 2007 than there were in the 11 months to the end of November 2009.
At current monthly production rates, beating
the 2007 high is easy. In fact, the manufacturers would have equalled that total some time before Christmas; early in the
second half of December.
Beating the all-time high set back in 1999 calls for a little more effort. Back then there
were 914 large commercial jet deliveries, or 47 more than in the 11 months to the end of November 2009. So, if Boeing and
Airbus each deliver 24 jets in December, the all-time record would be broken. Again, this will not be difficult. They have
delivered an average of 73.4 aircraft each month in the second half of the year anyway and 48 deliveries is 12 fewer than
in the worst month of the year. There is absolutely no question that they will do it.
It will be a record year
for Boeing. It might even be another record year for Airbus. There are not many manufacturing industries in the world today
that had a record 2009.What is interesting in this context is that
all year long we have had the prophets of doom saying that production would have to be slashed by one third (it wasn’t)
or that cancellations would wipe at least 30 percent off the backlog (cancellations took less than two percent off the backlog)
or that the year would end with a negative net order figure (it was +287 at the end of November). We sometimes wonder whether
some industry analysts are paid for the accuracy of their analysis or by the column inches of gloomy news they generate.
It
is around about this time of year that everyone’s thoughts turn to the new year. Once again, the prophets of doom are
out and about. Yes, production will slow somewhat and the order intake will probably be just as bad as in 2009. But production
won’t be slashed and forget about large scale cancellations - they last happened in the downturn at the start of the
90’s, around about the time of the first Gulf War.
Production will slow a little bit. Actually, we already
know that some programs will slow a little and we have known that for months. There will be small cuts to some widebody programs.
There might be some adjustments to smaller single-aisle programs. But the reason why there won’t be massive cuts is
because there were no massive increases in production in the three or four years up to the end of 2008 when there was so much
demand for new aircraft. What Airbus and Boeing and the engine manufacturers (and just about every single
Tier 1 and Tier 2 supplier) wanted to avoid was the peaks and troughs of the past - the boom and bust roller-coaster ride
which so characterised the industry in the Seventies and the Eighties. So, they didn’t ramp up when the airlines were
screaming for new transports, and now they don’t have to massively cut back.
It makes sense. So, because everyone wanted
gentle undulations in production rather than peaks and troughs, 2010 will not be a bad year for the large commercial jet industry.
Sadly, it won’t be such a brilliant year for the business jet industry and it won’t be such a great year for the
regional aircraft people either. But it will be another good year for the engine manufacturers.
Have a look at our free sample pages. This is a simple PDF download and you will get a really good idea of the depth of industry information we send out each month.
Philip Abbott.
Editor & Publisher.
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