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December 2011 - the latest issue.

Will it or will it not be a record production year? Earlier in the year the manufacturers were saying that it would be but until very recently the number of deliveries was very similar to the number of new aircraft delivered in 2010 and that was not a record year. The all-time record was set in 2009 with a total of 979 large commercial jet deliveries. There were seven fewer in 2010. But this is where it all gets very interesting. By the end of November (our December issue has figures up to and including November) there had been a total of 903 deliveries. That is actually 22 more than in the same period of 2010. All that is actually needed for 2011 to be a new record production year is for Boeing and Airbus to deliver 77 jets in December. That is 21 fewer than in November.

So, 2011 will almost certainly be a record year. But, as the figures in this issue show, it is going to be more of an Airbus record than a Boeing record. Airbus is looking at a sixth consecutive year of record delivery numbers. Boeing is not. Boeing had delivered 426 new aircraft by the end of November which means that getting to the minimum guideline figure issued earlier in the year is going to be difficult. Boeing needs 56 December deliveries to make 2011 a record year for the company and that would be the largest number of deliveries in a single month since May 2000.

Something else that our December issue shows is that by the end of November, 2011 was already the second best year ever for large commercial jet orders. The best year, which was actually 2007, had 563 more orders than had been placed up to November 30. Breaking the record will be difficult but not impossible. After all, Airbus like to finish each year with a bit of a flourish and might surprise us all.

The December issue also has the latest engine order book figures, broken down in great detail, rather like our aircraft order figures. The engine manufacturers like to say that business is booming and that they have never had it so good. The firm engine order book now stands at over 15,000, way above what it was at the start of the year. But that does not explain why only five engine programs currently have larger order books than at the start of the year. All the others have smaller order books.

You get the same sort of picture looking at our aircraft backlog figures. Everyone is very excited about all those A320 neo orders but, as we point out in this issue, the regular A320 (planes powered by the V2500 or CFM56-5B) has the largest backlog decline of any aircraft program since the start of 2011.

There are a few other surprises in the December issue. Our monthly analysis shows, in great detail, what really is going on in the industry.

You can see the cover and contents page of the issue by clicking on the link below.
Philip Abbott
Editor.